Soc 215: Basic Demographic Methods and Materials
Duke University
Sociology Department
Durham, North Carolina, 27708-0088
Professor Kenneth C.
Land
347 Soc-Psych Bldg. E-mail: kland@soc.duke.edu
Telephone (919) 660-5615
Fax (919) 660-5623
Soc 215: Basic Demographic Methods and Materials
Syllabus: (http://www.soc.duke.edu/~kland/soc.215.htm)
Tuesday and Thursday 10:55am-12:10pm: Soc/Psych Building, Room. 331. Required readings are indicated by a **.
Course Textbook:
Preston, Samuel H., Patrick Heuveline, and Michel Guillot
2001 Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishers, Inc. ISBN 1-55786-451-9.
January
08 Course introduction
13 Crude rates and growth rates. Readings: Chapter 1. Preston, Heuveline and Guillot**
**Census Bureau Projects doubling of the population by 2100.**
15 Malthus and exponential growth. Readings:
Malthus: Principle of Population
Meadows et.al. Beyond the Limits: Chapter 2
20 The census.
Special Topic: Should sampling be used?
** Wright,
Tommy. 1998. "Sampling and the census 2000: The concepts."
American Scientist 86:245-253.**
Wright,
Tommy. 1999. "A one-number census: some related history." Science
283:491-492.
Special topic: Reporting error in the Census
** Iversen,
Roberta R. and Frank F. Furstenberg. 1999. "How much do we count?
Interpretation and error-making in the decennial census." Demography
36:121-134.** (Note this link gets you to proquest. Search for "publication"
for Demography.)
22 The census, Continued.
Special topic: Measurement census
Stevens, Gillian.1999. "A century
of U.S. censuses and the language characteristics of immigrants." Demography
36:387-397.
Hirschman, Charles, Richard Alba, and Reynolds
Farley. 2000. "The meaning and measurement of race in the U.S. census:
glimpses into the future." Demography 37:381-394.
**Readings: Seltzer, William. 1998. "Population statistics, the Holocaust,
and the Nuremberg Trials." Population and Development Review 24:511-552.**
Resources: U.S. Census Bureau Home
Page. Newest Census
Home Page with lots of census 2000 stuff. Working paper series on
methodological issues. An example is: Results
of the 1996 Race and Ethnic Targeted Test.
1990 U.S. Census Data (for country,
state, counties, zip codes!)
United
States Historical Census Data Browser (1790 to 1970!)
27 Standardization and decomposition. Chapter 2, Section 2.1-2.3. Preston, Heuveline and Guillot**
29 Problem Set 2: Standardization
and decomposition
Resources: Stata software for direct standardization is
available. See procedure dstdize. The manual contains a brief,
clear description of direct standardization and several examples.
Special topic: Compositional arguments for changing crude rates.
Goldstein, Joshua R. 1999. "The leveling of divorce in the United States."
Demography 36:409-414.**
Morgan,
S. Philip. 1991. "Late nineteenth and early twentieth century childlessness
in the United States."American Journal of Sociology 97:779-807.
See Table 2 and discussion.
Smith,
Herbert L., S. Philip Morgan and Tanya Koropeckyj-Cox. 1996. "A decomposition
of trends in the nonmarital fertility ratios of blacks and whites in the United
States, 1960-1992." Demography 33:141-151.
Wojkiewicz,
R., S. McLanahan and I. Garfinkel. 1990. "The growth of families
headed by women: 1950-80." Demography 27:19-30.
February
3 Vital Registration.
Special topic: National Vital Statistics Reports. See:
Ventura, S.J. T.J. Mathews and S.C. Curtin. 1998. "Declines in teenage
birth rates, 1991-97: National and state patterns." National Vital Statistics
Reports 47, no. 12. (Note National
Vital Statistics Report 47..scroll to no.12) **
Resources: National
Center for Health Statistics . A broad array of demographic data available.
National Vital
Statistics Report. (12 monthly issues + provisional tables on births,
deaths, marriages.)
Back issues of National Vital
Statistics Report
Texas Vital Statistics
(an example of data available at state and county level)
North Carolina Vital Statistics.
(an example of data available at state and county level)
Also, an incredible amount of data from VS and Census on NC at UNC's Institute for Research in Social
Science
2000 Revision of U.S. standard
certificates
Tolson, GC, Barnes JM, et.al. 1991. "The
1989 revision of the U.S. standard certificates and reports." National
Center for Health Statistics. Vital Health Stat 4(28). Note: Appendix II has
copy of the standard birth and death certificate, content of standard form1900-1989.
Model State Vital Statistics
Act and Regulations. Guidelines for how vital statistics should be collected,
maintained, etc
Mortality data compiled by
John Wilmoth, U. of California, Berkeley.
The Atlas of Mortality in Europe
5 Vital Registration, Continued.
10 Lexis diagrams.
Chapter 2, Section D.
** Ryder,
Norman B. 1965. "The cohort as a concept in the study of social change."
American Sociological Review 30:843-61.**
Special topic:
Recognizing censoring and selectivity. Rindfuss, Ronald R., James A. Palmore
and Larry L. Bumpass. 1982. "Selectivity and the analysis of birth intervals
from survey data." Asian and Pacific Census Forum 8:5-10, 15-16.**
Note: this is a dense article. Spend no more than 1 hour on it BEFORE I
lecture.
Special topic: Collecting retrospective data.
Axinn, William G., Thomas E. Fricke and Arland Thornton.1991. "The
microdemographic community study approach: Improving survey data by integrating
the ethnographic method." Sociological Methods and Research 20:187-217.
Axinn and Thornton. Life history calendars. Sociological Methodology.
Find accurate cite
12 Problem Set 3. Lexis
diagrams
Special topic: Retrospective survey estimates of mortality. Note: Pay
special attention to use of survey data in these articles. Both depend on
retrospective data from the Vietnamese Longitudinal Survey.
Merli, Giovanna M. 2000. "Socioeconomic
background and Vietnamese war mortality during Vietnam's wars." Demography
37:1-17.
**Hirschman,
Charles, Samuel Preston and Vu Manh Loi. 1995. "Vietnamese casualties
during the American war: A New Estimate." Population and Development
Review 21:783-812.**
17 Life tables. Single decrement. Readings:Chapter 3 . Preston, Heuveline and Guillot**
24 Life tables, Continued. Multiple decrement. Readings: Chapter 4. Preston, Heuveline and Guillot**
26 Problem Set 5. (Herb
Smith, U. of Penn)
Special topic: King, Rosalind
Berkowiz. 1999. "Time spent in parenthood status among adults in
the United States." Demography 36:377-385.**
March
2 Measures of fertility. Chapter 5. Preston, Heuveline and Guillot**
Coale, Ansley J. and Susan Cotts Watkins. 1986. The Decline of Fertility
in Europe. Princeton: Princeton U. Press.
Ryder, N.B. 1986. "Observations
on the history of cohort fertility in the United States." Population
and Development Review. 12:617-643.
Preston, S.H. 1976.
"Family sizes of children and family sizes of women." Demography
13:105-114.
4 More
on fertility. Problem Set 6.
Special topic:
Bhrolchain,
Marie Ni. 1992. "A critique of the cohort approach to fertility."
Population and Development Review 18:599-630.**
9 Spring Break
11 Spring Break
16 More on fertility.
Special topic: Tempo and Quantum: Bongaarts,
John, and Griffith Feeney. 1998 "On the quantum and tempo of fertility."
Population and Development Review 24:271-292.**
18 Measures of migration.
Special topic: the New Immigrant Survey. Jasso et.al. 2000. Demography.
**
Special topic: Measuring the number of illegal immigrants in the United
States. Resources: Statistical Yearbook of
the Immigration and Naturalization Service. How many immigrants were admitted
to the U.S. in 1996? More males or females admitted? Browse site to see range
of resources available.
Demography of Forced migrations:
an NAS report.
The Immigration Debate: Studies
on the Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration: An NAS report.
The New Americans: Economic, Demographic,
and Fiscal Effects of Immigration: An NAS report.
23 More on migration.
25 Population projection. Chapter 6. Preston, Heuveline and Guillot**
International Data from the U.N. including
recent projections
April
6 Problem Set 7.
Special topic: Chapters from the NAS Report
on Population Projection: Beyond Six Billion **
8 Including migration
in population projections
Morrison, Peter. 2000. "Forecasting
enrollments for immigrant entry-port school districts" Demography
37:499-510.
13 Indices of segregation/inequality.
Massey, Douglas and Nancy A. Denton.
1988. "The dimensions of residential segregation." Social Forces
67:281-315.
**Massey, Douglas and Nancy A. Denton. 1989. "Hypersegregation
in U.S. Metropolitan areas: Black and Hispanic segregation along five dimensions."
Demography 26:373-391.
Massey, Douglas and Nancy A. Denton. 1993. American Apartheid. Cambridge,
MA:Harvard
Reardon, Sean F. and John T. Yun and Tamela
McNulty Eitle. 2000. "The changing structure of school segregation:
measurement and evidence of multi-racial metropolitan area school segregation,
1989-1995." Demography 37:351-364.
15 Demographic Surveys SIPP, NSFG, CPS, HRS, etc.
Current Population Survey
(Census Bureau)
National
Survey of Family Growth and some
results from 1995 NSFG
Survey of Income and
Program Participation (Census Bureau)
Panel Study of Income
Dynamics (Michigan)
National Long Term Care
Survey (Duke)
Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) and
Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) (Michigan)
National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent
Health (UNC)
Other surveys of possible interest:
International Social Survey Programme General
social surveys in a large set of countries
Demographic Health Surveys (DHS)
Developing country surveys of fertility and maternal/child health
National Health and Nutrition Examination
Survey
National Health Interview
Survey
National Household Survey
on Drug Abuse
Computer Usage Supplement
to Current Population Survey
Review. Problem Set 8. (Herb Smith, U. of Penn). Selected Problems ONLY.
Final Exam: At the assigned time for this course period..
Course grading: Grades will be assigned on the basis of problem sets and a final exam. The final exam will contribute 30% toward a final grade. Assignments are due one week after they are listed on the syllabus.
About the course: This course was organized by Phil Morgan; it uses some materials provided by Samuel H. Preston and Herbert L. Smith. These materials were used in Basic Demographic Methods, a course taught at the University of Pennsylvania.