Sociology 215 Morgan (adapted from Herb Smith)

Spring 2000

• Project the mid-year 1985 female population forward to 1990, 1995, and 2000, assuming that fertility and mortality rates remain at their 1985 levels and that there is no net migration. This amounts to applying the formulas in Box 6.1 of Preston et.al. to the data that have been using in this and previous problem sets. (Remember that although the example-Sweden 1993-has no fertility below age 15, U.S. 1985 does.) You need do this for females only; you can ignore those parts of Box 6.1 that pertain to projecting forward the male population.



• Based on your results from part 3, calculate the mean growth rate during each period (1985-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2000). Why is it changing, when age-specific mortality and fertility rates are constant?



• Graph the proportionate age distribution in 1985 and 2000. Comment on changes that you see.



• Calculate how many females alive in 1985 will have died by 2000. What proportion of those alive in 1985 will have died?



• Describe as precisely as possible how the age distribution in 1995 would differ from that which you have projected if all age-specific fertility rates had been 20% higher during the projection period. You do not need to do any additional computer calculations.



• Describe in general terms how the age distribution of 2000 would differ if age-specific death rates at ages 65-69 were 5% lower during the projection period. Again, no additional calculations are necessary.