1.
The following
questions pertain to the U.S. population in 1985.
|
Table 1.
Data for U.S. Females, 1985 |
||||
|
Age at last birthday |
Estimated mid-year population (thousands) |
Total number of deaths |
Deaths due to neoplasms |
Average years lived for those dying in the interval |
|
0 |
1831 |
17079 |
97 |
0.086 |
|
1-4 |
6968 |
3099 |
411 |
1.500 |
|
5-9 |
8214 |
1739 |
284 |
2.500 |
|
10-14 |
8339 |
1711 |
268 |
2.757 |
|
15-19 |
9106 |
4239 |
353 |
2.644 |
|
20-24 |
10483 |
5538 |
546 |
2.552 |
|
25-29 |
10869 |
6519 |
965 |
2.588 |
|
30-34 |
10172 |
7985 |
1879 |
2.632 |
|
35-39 |
8967 |
9882 |
3139 |
2.678 |
|
40-44 |
7167 |
12448 |
4849 |
2.706 |
|
45-49 |
5968 |
17080 |
7502 |
2.702 |
|
50-54 |
5661 |
26251 |
11767 |
2.683 |
|
55-59 |
5959 |
42986 |
18756 |
2.671 |
|
60-64 |
5877 |
65825 |
26584 |
2.650 |
|
65-69 |
5176 |
86517 |
29922 |
2.642 |
|
70-74 |
4354 |
113189 |
32387 |
2.631 |
|
75-79 |
3359 |
137554 |
29676 |
2.614 |
|
80-84 |
2177 |
151535 |
23896 |
2.596 |
|
85+ |
1934 |
277506 |
25149 |
6.969 |
|
Table 2.
More Aspects of the 1985 U.S. Population |
|
|
Panel
A. Births by Age of Mother |
|
|
Age of Mother |
Number of Births |
|
10-14 |
10220 |
|
15-19 |
467485 |
|
20-24 |
1141320 |
|
25-29 |
1201350 |
|
30-34 |
696354 |
|
35-39 |
214336 |
|
40-44 |
28334 |
|
45-49 |
1162 |
|
Panel
B. Births by Sex of Child |
|
|
Sex of Child |
Number of Births |
|
Male |
1927983 |
|
Female |
1832578 |
|
Panel
C. Total Population by Sex |
|
|
Sex |
Number |
|
Male |
116161000 |
|
Female |
122581000 |
A.
What was the
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) in the United States in 1985?
B.
Calculate and
graph the set of age-specific fertility rates for 1985 (i.e., the
fertility “curve”). How would you
characterize the shape of this curve?
The shape of the curve for Hutterite fertility (see footnote 5 and/or
Box 5.2 of Preston and Heuveline)? Are
the 1985 U.S. data and the Hutterite data fully comparable–i.e., do they
measure the same phenomenon in both populations? Why or why not?
C.
What was the
General Fertility Rate for the U.S. population in 1985? In symbolic terms, by what factor does this
exceed the CBR that you calculated in part A?
D.
Calculate and
interpret the Total Fertility Rate.
E.
Calculate and
interpret the Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR).
You can assume that the sex ratio of births does not vary by the age of
the mother.
F.
Calculate and
interpret the Net Reproduction Rate (NRR).
Use the same assumption as in part E.
G.
How close would
you have come to the correct value of the NRR if you had used the approximation
, where
is the probability of surviving from birth
to
, the mean age of the fertility (or maternity) schedule?
2.
Fill in Table
3.
|
Table 3. The
Completed Fertility of U.S. White Women Born 1896-1900 |
||||
|
Parity (i) |
Number of Women with i
Children Live Born ( |
Number of Women with i
or More Children Live Born ( |
Parity Progression Ratio from i
to i+1 ( |
Parity Progression Ratio from 0
to i ( |
|
0 |
584,870 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
559,126 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
661,860 |
|
|
|
|
3 |
461,260 |
|
|
|
|
4 |
302,340 |
|
|
|
|
5 |
190,119 |
|
|
|
|
6 |
127,484 |
|
|
|
|
7 |
82,769 |
|
|
|
|
8 |
59,017 |
|
|
|
|
9 |
110,825 |
|
|
|
A.
Calculate the
TFR for this cohort of women
(1)
As the
parity-weighted average of the number of live born children:
(2)
As the sum of
births by parity divided by the total number of women in the cohort:
(3)
As the sum of
parity progression ratios:
B.
What proportion
of the cohort was childless?
C.
What proportion
of the cohort had at least four children?
D.
Among women who
had at least one child, what was the probability that they would end up having
at least two children?
E.
Among women who
had at least one child, what was the probability that they would end up having
at least four children?
F.
If only 10% of
the women in this cohort had remained childless, and no other parity
progression ratios were to have changed, what would have been the TFR of this
cohort?
G.
As parity (i)
increases, the parity progression ratio from i to i+1 must
decrease (i.e., for all i, 
).
True of false, and why?