Soc 215: Basic Demographic Methods and Materials
updated: 3/27/2002
Durham, North Carolina, 27708-0088
344 Soc-Psych Bldg. E-mail:pmorgan@soc.duke.edu
Telephone (919) 660-5747
Fax (919) 660-5623
Soc 215: Basic Demographic Methods and Materials
Syllabus: (http://www.soc.duke.edu/~pmorgan/soc.215.htm)
Tuesday and Thursday 10:55am-12:10pm: Soc/Psych room. 331. Required readings are indicated by a **.
January
10 Course introduction
15 Crude rates and growth rates. Readings: Chapter 1. Preston, Heuveline and Guillot**
**Census Bureau Projects doubling of the population by 2100.**
17 Malthus and exponential growth. Readings:
Malthus: Principle of Population (Chapter 1 &2)
Meadows et.al. Beyond the Limits: Chapter 2
22 The census.
**Anderson, M. and S. E. Fineberg (2001).
"Census 2000 and the politics of census taking." Society 39(1):
17-25.
Anderson, M. and S. E. Fineberg (2001). Who Counts? The Politics of Census-Taking in Contemporary America. New York, Russell Sage Foundation.
Starr, Paul. "The sociology of official statistics." Pp. 7-57 in Alonso, William and Paul Starr (eds), The Politics of Numbers. Russell Sage:New York.
Based on the 1990 Census:
Farley, Reynolds, 1996. The New American Reality : Who We Are, How We Got Here, Where We Are Going. New York : Russell Sage Foundation.
Based on the 1910 Census:
Watkins, Susan C. (editor) 1994. After Ellis Island: Newcomers and Natives in the 1910 Census. New York: Russel Sage Foundation.
Special Topic: Should sampling be used?
**Freedman, D. A. and K. W. Wachter (2001). "Census adjustment: Statistical promise or illusion?" Society 39(1): 26-33.
Wright, Tommy. 1998. "Sampling and the census 2000: The concepts."American Scientist 86:245-253
Wright, Tommy. 1999. "A one-number census: some related history." Science 283:491-492.
Special topic: Reporting error in the Census
** Iversen, Roberta R. and Frank F. Furstenberg. 1999. "How much do we count? Interpretation and error-making in the decennial census." Demography 36:121-134.** (Note this link gets you to proquest. Search for "publication" for Demography.)
24 Special topic: Measurement in the census
Stevens, Gillian.1999. "A century of U.S. censuses and the language characteristics of immigrants." Demography 36:387-397.
Hirschman, Charles, Richard Alba, and Reynolds Farley. 2000. "The meaning and measurement of race in the U.S. census: Glimpses into the future." Demography 37:381-394.
Population registers
**Seltzer, William. 1998. "Population statistics, the Holocaust, and the Nuremberg Trials." Population and Development Review 24:511-552.**
Continuous Surveys: The American Community Survey
Resources: U.S. Census Bureau Home Page. Newest Census Home Page with lots of census 2000 stuff. Working paper series on methodological issues. An example is: Results of the 1996 Race and Ethnic Targeted Test.
1990 U.S. Census Data (for country, state, counties, zip codes!)
United States Historical Census Data Browser (1790 to 1970!)
29 Standardization and decomposition. Chapter 2, Section 2.1-2.3. Preston, Heuveline and Guillot**
** Morgan, S. P. and S. M.
Lynch (2001). Demography's Success and Its Future: The role of Data and
Methods. Demography and Epidemiology: Frontiers in Population Health and
Aging, Annals of New York Academy of Sciences (forthcoming).
31 Assignment 2: Standardization and decomposition
Resources: Stata software for direct standardization is available. See procedure dstdize. The manual contains a brief, clear description of direct standardization and several examples.
Special topic: Compositional arguments for changing crude rates.
Goldstein, J. R. (1999). "The leveling of divorce in the United States." Demography 36(3): 409-414.
Morgan, S. Philip. 1991. "Late nineteenth and early twentieth century childlessness in the United States. "American Journal of Sociology 97:779-807. See Table 2 and discussion.
Smith, Herbert L., S. Philip Morgan and Tanya Koropeckyj-Cox. 1996. "A decomposition of trends in the nonmarital fertility ratios of blacks and whites in the United States, 1960-1992." Demography 33:141-151.
Wojkiewicz, R., S. McLanahan and I. Garfinkel. 1990. "The growth of families headed by women: 1950-80." Demography 27:19-30.
February
5 Vital Registration.
Special topic: National Vital Statistics Reports. See: Ventura, S.J. T.J. Mathews and S.C. Curtin. 1998. "Declines in teenage birth rates, 1991-97: National and state patterns." National Vital Statistics Reports 47, no. 12. (Note National Vital Statistics Report 47..scroll to no.12) **
Resources: National Center for Health Statistics . A broad array of demographic data available.
National Vital Statistics Report. (12 monthly issues + provisional tables on births, deaths, marriages.)
Back issues of National Vital Statistics Report
Advance Data (from Vital and Health Statistics)
Texas Vital Statistics (an example of data available at state and county level)
North Carolina Vital Statistics. (an example of data available at state and county level)
Also, an incredible amount of data from VS and Census on NC at UNC's Institute for Research in Social Science
Tolson, GC, Barnes JM, et.al. 1991. "The 1989 revision of the U.S. standard certificates and reports." National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Health Stat 4(28). Note: Appendix II has copy of the standard birth and death certificate, content of standard form1900-1989.
Model State Vital Statistics Act and Regulations. Guidelines for how vital statistics should be collected, maintained, etc
Mortality data compiled by John Wilmoth, U. of California, Berkeley.
The Atlas of Mortality in Europe
7 Do NOT do this extra assignment. spm 2/7/02 Additional Problem Set 2B (Using Census and Vital Registration materials)
12 Lexis diagrams. Chapter 2, Section D.
** Ryder, Norman B. 1965. "The cohort as a concept in the study of social change." American Sociological Review 30:843-61.**
Hobcraft, J. N., J. Menken, and Samuel H.
Prestonl. (1982). "Age, period and cohort effects in demography: A
review." Population Index 48(1): 4-43.
Special topic: Recognizing censoring and selectivity. Rindfuss, Ronald R., James A. Palmore and Larry L. Bumpass. 1982. "Selectivity and the analysis of birth intervals from survey data." Asian and Pacific Census Forum 8:5-10, 15-16.** Note: this is a dense article. Spend no more than 1 hour on it BEFORE I lecture. Spm
Special topic: Collecting retrospective data.
Axinn, William G., Thomas E. Fricke and Arland Thornton.1991. "The microdemographic community study approach: Improving survey data by integrating the ethnographic method." Sociological Methods and Research 20:187-217.
Axinn and Thornton. Life history calendars. Sociological Methodology. Find accurate cite
14 Problem Set 3. Lexis diagrams
Special topic: Retrospective survey estimates of mortality. Note: Pay special attention to use of survey data in these articles. Both depend on retrospective data from the Vietnamese Longitudinal Survey.
Merli, Giovanna M. 2000. "Socioeconomic background and Vietnamese war mortality during Vietnam's wars." Demography 37:1-17.
**Hirschman, Charles, Samuel Preston and Vu Manh Loi. 1995. "Vietnamese casualties during the American war: A New Estimate." Population and Development Review 21:783-812.**
19 Life tables. Single decrement. Readings:Chapter 3 . Preston, Heuveline and Guillot**
21 Problem Set 4. Due on Feb 28.
To be revised: Addition to Problem Set 4: Using STATA to estimate lifetables from individual level data
26 Life tables. Multiple decrement. Readings: Chapter 4. Preston, Heuveline and Guillot**
28 Problem Set 5. (Herb Smith, U. of Penn)
Special topic: King, Rosalind Berkowiz. 1999. "Time spent in parenthood status among adults in the United States." Demography 36:377-385.**
March
5 Measures of fertility. Chapter 5. Preston, Heuveline and Guillot**
Coale, Ansley J. and Susan Cotts Watkins. 1986. The Decline of Fertility in Europe. Princeton: Princeton U. Press.
Ryder, N.B. 1986. "Observations on the history of cohort fertility in the United States." Population and Development Review. 12:617-643.
7 More on fertility. Problem Set 6.
Preston, S.H. 1976. "Family sizes of children and family sizes of women." Demography 13:105-114.
Special topic: Bhrolchain, Marie Ni. 1992. "A critique of the cohort approach to fertility." Population and Development Review 18:599-630.**
12 Spring Break
14 Spring Break
19 Proximate determinants of
fertility:
Bongaarts, J. and R. G. Potter (1978). "Why
are high birth rates so low." Population and Development Review
1: 289-296.
Bongaarts, J. (1978). "A
Framework for Analyzing the Proximate Determinants of Fertility." Population
and Development Review 4: 105-132.
Bongaarts, J. (1987). "The
proximate determinants of exceptionally high fertility." Population
and Development Review 13(1): 133-39.
Bongaarts, J., O. Frank, et al. (1984). "The
proximate determinants of fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa." Population
and Development Review 10: 511-538.
Bongaarts, J. and R. G. Potter (1983). Fertility, Biology and
Behavior. New York:, Academic Press.
Stover, J. (1998). "Revising the proximate determinants of fertility framework: What have we learned in the past 20 years?" Studies in Family Planning 29(3): 255-267.
Problem Set 6. Due on March 26
21 More on
fertility
Special topic: Tempo and Quantum: Bongaarts, John, and Griffith Feeney. 1998 "On the quantum and tempo of fertility." Population and Development Review 24:271-292.**
26 Measures of migration.
Special topic: the New Immigrant Survey. Jasso et.al. 2000. Demography. **
Special topic: Measuring the number of illegal immigrants in the United States. Resources: Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service. How many immigrants were admitted to the U.S. in 1996? More males or females admitted? Browse site to see range of resources available.
Demography of Forced migrations: an NAS report.
The New Americans: Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration: An NAS report.
28 More on migration
April
2 Population projection. Chapter 6.
Preston, Heuveline and Guillot**
Special topic: Chapters from the NAS Report on Population Projection: Beyond Six Billion **
International Data from the U.N. including recent projections
UN Website that allows you to do a population projection: http://esa.un.org/unpp/
4 Problem Set 10. No class.
9. Including migration in population projections
Morrison, Peter. 2000. "Forecasting enrollments for immigrant entry-port school districts" Demography 37:499-510.
Special
topic: Lowell
Hargens (forthcoming.. get figures from Morgan) “Demographic Inertia and
Women’s Representation
among Faculty in Higher-Education”
11 Indices of segregation/inequality.
Massey, Douglas and Nancy A. Denton. 1988. "The dimensions of residential segregation." Social Forces 67:281-315.
**Massey, Douglas and Nancy A. Denton. 1989. "Hypersegregation in U.S. Metropolitan areas: Black and Hispanic segregation along five dimensions." Demography 26:373-391.
Massey, Douglas and Nancy A. Denton. 1993. American Apartheid. Cambridge, MA:Harvard
Reardon, Sean F. and John T. Yun and Tamela McNulty Eitle. 2000. "The changing structure of school segregation: measurement and evidence of multi-racial metropolitan area school segregation, 1989-1995." Demography 37:351-364.
16
Demographic Surveys SIPP,
NSFG, CPS, HRS, etc.
The
American Community Survey (Census Bureau .. possible replacement for
Census)
Current Population Survey (Census Bureau)
National Survey of Family Growth and some results from 1995 NSFG
Survey of Income and Program Participation (Census Bureau)
Panel Study of Income Dynamics (Michigan)
National Long Term Care Survey (Duke)
Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) and Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) (Michigan)
National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (UNC)
Other surveys of possible interest:
International Social Survey Programme General social surveys in a large set of countries
Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) Developing country surveys of fertility and maternal/child health
National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey
National Health Interview Survey
National Household Survey on Drug Abuse
Computer Usage Supplement to Current Population Survey
Special topic: Finding a data set/question. Identify a question and chose a data set that could be used to investigate the question. Or chose a data set and identify a question that could be addressed with these data. Class presentation of 10 minutes. Outline for report.
18
Review
19 Exam: Friday May 3: 7:00 pm to 10:00 pm.
Course grading: Grades will be assigned on the basis of problem sets and a final exam. The final exam will contribute 30% toward a final grade. Assignments are due one week after they are listed on the syllabus.
About the course: This course uses some materials provided by Samuel H. Preston and Herbert L. Smith. These materials were used in Basic Demographic Methods, a course taught at the University of Pennsylvania.