Demographic Methods. Soc. 215. Additional Problem Set.

This assignment requires you to combine the use of census data, vital registration data and demographic methods. E-mail me if you have any questions or problems.

Do the following:

1. Chose three NC counties. Find the total count of deaths (from Vital Registration) in these counties in 1995 or 1996. Use the website:

http://hermes.sches.ehnr.state.nc.us/SCHS/

Also record deaths by age for the year you chose. Record the same data for the state as a whole.

Do not concern yourself with deaths by cause at this point.

2. Find the age-specific death rate for the U.S. in 1996.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchswww/data/mv46_1s2.pdf

I found them in the document above, Table 10.

3. For the three N.C. counties and the State of N.C. as a whole find age distributions that correspond to the data you collected above. Use 1990 census data. You can find this data at:

http://venus.census.gov/cdrom/lookup/918492782

Assume that population growth in N.C. and in each of the counties you chose equals the growth estimated for the state as a whole from 1990-1995. According to the site below, the NC population was 6,632,000 in 1990 and 7,195,000 in 1995. Project this constant rate to 1996. Assume that growth is constant at all ages.

http://www.census.gov/prod/2/gen/96statab/pop.pdf

4. Estimate an expected number of deaths and death rate for the three counties and the state assuming that national age-specific rates prevail and that the 1990 population count is correct. How close are these predictions to those observed? Offer a framework for thinking about differences in the predicted and observed mortality rates. Do the data you have on hand provide you with any clues to these differences between observed and predicted?