
The Wireless Service Industry
Currently over 470 million users. (See Table 1).
Estimated to be almost 1.5 billion users by 2003. (See table 1)
Growth primarily centered in Europe, Asia, and to a lesser extent, North America.
In the United States, growth has continued at a rapid pace (See Figure 2).
Telecommunications spending will reach more than $1 trillion, while wireless communications is projected to reach $81.8 billion by 2002.
Geographic Dispersion is shown in Table 1. The results indicate that Europe and Asia are the centers of wireless service usage, while North America ranks third. It also shows that Latin America and Africa will experience tremendous growth in the next five years.
Because most telephone networks in nations have been regulated or controlled by government for so long, and because wireless service and their equipment must be located near consumers, wireless service providers tend to be from developed nations in Japan, Western Europe, and the United States.
Table 1 -- Global Wireless Growth Projections by Region
| Subscribers (in Millions) | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 (estimated) | 2001 (estimated) | 2002 (estimated) | 2003 (estimated) |
| North America | 74.4 | 92.9 | 115.4 | 144.4 | 177.0 | 207.4 |
| Europe | 99.7 | 168.0 | 243.0 | 323.0 | 403.0 | 483.0 |
| Asia/Pacific | 101.9 | 151.0 | 216.0 | 301.0 | 411.0 | 551.0 |
| Latin America | 21.7 | 37.0 | 57.0 | 80.0 | 106.0 | 136.0 |
| Africa/ME | 11.4 | 22.8 | 38.8 | 58.8 | 83.8 | 113.8 |
| TOTAL | 309.1 | 471.7 | 670.2 | 907.1 | 1,180.7 | 1,491.2 |
| Ending Subs. % of Total | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 (estimated) | 2001 (estimated) | 2002 (estimated) | 2003 (estimated) |
| North America | 24.1 | 19.7 | 17.2 | 15.9 | 15.0 | 13.9 |
| Europe | 32.2 | 35.6 | 36.3 | 35.6 | 34.1 | 32.4 |
| Asia/Pacific | 33.0 | 32.0 | 32.2 | 33.2 | 34.8 | 37.0 |
| Latin America | 7.0 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.1 |
| Africa/ME | 3.7 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 7.8 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Source: Merrill Lynch. The Next Generation IV: Wireless in the US. March 10, 2000.
Figure 2

Source: CTIA. http://www.wow-com.com/
Corporate Presence
Table 2 shows the global leaders of the wireless service industry that consist of strictly wireless operations.
Table 3 shows the US leaders in wireless service.
In the US, the top three carriers account for 57% of subscribers.
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Table 2 -- Telecommunications
(Cellular/Wireless) |
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Industry
|
Ticker Symbol |
Revenue Share (%) |
Sales 12 Month Moving (mil) |
Sales 1 Yr Chng (%) |
| VODAFONE AIRTOUCH PLC | VOD | 12.88 | 5423.040 | 30.9 |
| AIRTOUCH COMMUNICATIONS INC | ATI.1 | 12.30 | 5181.000 | -75.5 |
| CABLE & WIRELESS COMM | CWZ | 10.05 | 4230.294 | 11.9 |
| SPRINT PCS GROUP | PCS | 7.55 | 3180.000 | 159.5 |
| NEXTEL COMMUNICATIONS | NXTL | 6.98 | 2937.613 | 92.0 |
| ROGERS COMMUNICATION | RG | 4.76 | 2002.966 | 8.9 |
| SPRINT SPECTRUM | 3604B | 4.35 | 1832.248 | 157.8 |
| US CELLULAR CORP | USM | 3.26 | 1373.393 | 25.8 |
| TELESP CELULAR PART SA | TCP | 2.85 | 1198.300 | |
| PAGING NETWORK INC | PAGE | 2.44 | 1026.240 | -1.5 |
| TELE SUDESTE CELULAR | TSD | 2.25 | 945.332 | 45.0 |
| BCE MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS | BCX | 2.00 | 841.750 | -33.8 |
| ROGERS CANTEL MOB COM | RCN | 1.95 | 820.206 | -4.9 |
| NETCOM AB | NECS | 1.95 | 819.515 | 29.5 |
| COMSAT CORP | CQ | 1.47 | 618.463 | 3.9 |
| METROCALL INC | MCLL | 1.45 | 610.187 | 31.3 |
| TELESYS INTL WIRELESS INC | TIWI | 1.39 | 584.859 | 118.4 |
| WESTERN WIRELESS CORP | WWCA | 1.35 | 567.341 | 36.2 |
| SKYTEL COMMUNICATIONS INC | SKYT | 1.31 | 551.383 | 23.9 |
| BELL CANADA INTL INC | BCICF | 1.30 | 546.597 | 23.2 |
| ARCH COMMUNICATIONS GROUP | APGR | 1.29 | 544.568 | 32.5 |
| MILLICOM INTL CELLULAR SA | MICC | 1.16 | 489.117 | 22.0 |
| COMCAST CELLULAR CORP | 9659B | 1.09 | 459.662 | 3.0 |
| VOICESTREAM WIRELESS CORP | VSTR | 1.08 | 454.122 | 170.4 |
| CENTENNIAL COMMUN CP | CYCL | 1.06 | 445.355 | 53.8 |
| VANGUARD CELLULAR SYS | VCELA | 1.00 | 421.706 | 264.7 |
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| Total Industry Sales | 42106.018 | |||
Source: Standard & Poor's Market Insight
Telecommunications (Cellular/Wireless) Industry
http://umi.compustat.com/cgi-mi-auth/mihome.cgi?tab=industry
Table 3 -- Wireless Service Leaders in the US Market -- 1999
| Bell Atlantic/GTE/Vodafone Airtouch | 29.4 |
| AT&T Wireless w/ Partnership Markets | 14.2 |
| SBC Communications | 13.0 |
| Sprint PCS | 6.7 |
| BellSouth | 6.2 |
| ALLTEL | 5.8 |
| Nextel | 5.3 |
| GSM Operators | 3.2 |
| Other | 16.3 |
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There are a considerable number of mergers and acquisitions within this industry. Some are:
MCI and WorldCom
MCI/WorldCom and Sprint
VoiceStream and Omnipoint
VoiceStream and Omnipoint
Vodafone and Airtouch Cellular
Vodafone/Airtouch and GTE/Bell Atlantic
Vodafone/Airtouch and Mannessmann
According to Merrill Lynch, consolidation is widespread within the wireless service industry.
The end result of consolidation is that small firms are absorbed or driven out of business. Large firms are better able to dictate terms to the industry. However, at this time, there are enough firms to avoid any one firm to dominate the industry. Intense price competition will keep competition in this industry for some time to come.
The case studies below illustrate the dynamics of this industry: